- Ookla is known for its Speedtest data and network intelligence tools
- The company’s lead industry analyst Mike Dano said he’s watching wireless developments related to AI, satellite and FWA
- But he doesn’t expect to see much activity around 5G-Advanced and 6G yet
Fixed and mobile broadband test and research firm Ookla has given Fierce its wireless predictions for 2026. Ookla lead industry analyst – and former Fierce editor – Mike Dano talked to us about his expectations for what the coming year holds for wireless. His take? AI, fixed wireless access (FWA) and low-earth orbit (LEO) satellites will all play potentially starring roles, but 5G-Advanced and 6G not so much.
AI
Dano said that how AI will affect the 5G market in 2026 is the question of the day. “From our perspective...the network performance characteristics that we’re going to watch closely are latency and upload,” the analyst noted. He said that much of this will depend where such AI processing takes place – on the device, the network, or in giant data centers and edge computing facilities.
“The answer to those questions is going to have a really big impact as to how much [effect] AI is going to have on the network,” Dano said. He believes that this is really an open question at this point.
Satellites
“I think 2026 will see a lot more activity and a lot more providers coming into the market,” said Dano of the LEO satellite market next year. He noted that Amazon LEO will offer fixed wireless services, while AST SpaceMobile – backed by multiple major operators – is expected to start to deliver direct-to-device (D2D) satellite-to-cellphone services in early 2026.
“As that market matures,” Dano said. “We’re just going to see a lot more services for consumers, more players coming into the market, faster speeds, better technologies. It is just going to be a real interesting market to watch.”
FWA
Ookla is big on 5G fixed wireless access (FWA), viewing it as one of the consumer high points of the cellular standard. Dano said that Ookla calculated the numbers and almost 10% of U.S. broadband households are subscribing to one or another of the 5G FWAs. He described this number as “just amazing” considering large-scale FWA was considered impossible just a few years ago.
Now people are asking, “just how big can this thing get?” the analyst said.
5G-Advanced and 6G
One thing he doesn't expect to see a whole lot of buzz about? 5G-Advanced.
“I don’t expect it to be a huge mad rush towards [the 5G-Advanced] standards,” he said, noting that operators are focused on profitability rather than adding new services just for the sake of it.
He acknowledged that T-Mobile in the U.S. has started on the 5G-Advanced path – as well as several Chinese operators – and has said it plans to offer more 5G-Advanced services in 2026. “I would assume that other operators in the U.S. and globally will follow the same path,” he said.
Additionally, despite all the interest around 6G, Dano believes it will largely be vaporware in 2026.
“In 2026, I think we’ll hear tons of talk about 6G and lots of powerpoint slides and very little tangible progress,” he said, while noting that standard bodies like 3GPP are still working hard on the next cellular standard.