- Quantum computers capable of breaking today's encryption have a 50%+ chance of arriving by 2035, threatening everything from mobile calls to financial transactions
- Hackers are already collecting encrypted data to decrypt later, making information protected today vulnerable tomorrow
- Telecom operators face a massive infrastructure overhaul spanning SIM cards, authentication servers and 5G networks—and the window to prepare is narrowing
As if today's dangers aren't enough to worry about, you need to start protecting yourself now against a threat that probably won’t materialize for at least nine years.
The threat is Q-Day, the moment quantum computers become powerful enough to break the encryption protecting virtually all digital communications today. Boston Consulting Group estimates a better-than-50% probability that Q-Day will arrive by 2035.
Cryptography is, of course, essential to the global economy and society, used to protect confidential communications, financial transactions, medical and legal records, military secrets and more. Failure to address the post-quantum computing (PQC) encryption deficiencies jeopardizes $12.4 trillion global assets by 2035, according to a report released this month by Synergy Quantum.
Quantum computing will enable new methods of attacks at increased scale and speed. "Quantum computing will make it possible to decrypt vast archives of stolen data within hours, forge digital signatures and break into communications channels that are deemed secure using today’s computing power," according to a report from Bain. Quantum computing will make it possible to identify and weaponize zero-day vulnerabilities faster, and malware will become more targeted, adaptive and resilient. Quantum computing combined with AI could enable sophisticated social engineering attacks at scale.
As the Bain report warns, "Existing defenses, built on assumptions about computational difficulty, will collapse almost overnight."
Regulators are moving to address the threat. The EU's Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA) mandates migration to quantum-safe cryptography. The U.S. requires federal migration by 2035, and the UK deadline is 2031.
Telecoms in the quantum crosshairs
Telecoms face an especially acute threat. The RSA and elliptical curve cryptography (ECC) protecting internet traffic, mobile calls and financial transactions can all be broken by sufficiently powerful quantum computers. Future quantum systems could crack the widely used RSA-2048 algorithm — currently requiring billions of years to break — in mere days. The telecom sector, which must protect customer data and critical infrastructure, is a key stakeholder in adopting quantum-safe cryptography standards, writes Marin Ivezik, CEO of quantum technology consultants Applied Quantum, in a report
To protect the global electronic economy, organizations are moving to post-quantum cryptography — algorithms believed to be immune to known quantum attacks. Because this cryptography can run on conventional computers, it is easier to implement for telecom systems, from 5G core networks to customer handsets, Ivezik writes. Device manufacturers like Google and Apple are working to implement post-quantum cipher suites.
"For telecom operators, migrating to PQC is a major undertaking," Ivezik writes. "They need to update encryption in many layers: SIM cards, VPNs, authentication servers, software update systems and more. One advantage is that PQC can often be deployed via software updates (since it’s just new mathematics), but the scale of telecom networks means this still requires careful coordination. Industry bodies like the GSMA Taskforce on Post-Quantum are developing guidelines to make this transition smooth."
Telecoms need to adopt "crypto agility," building networks where encryption algorithms can be swapped out or upgraded with minimal disruption, Ivezic writes. Think of it as future-proofing: rather than hardwiring specific encryption methods, networks must be designed to evolve as threats emerge. This ensures that the network can quickly adapt as PQC standards evolve and new weaknesses are discovered.
Because of telco infrastructure long lifecycles, the migration to crypto agility is a long-term commitment "Infrastructure built in the 2010s will still be operational when quantum computers can break its encryption," said Jay Oberai, Synergy Quantum co-founder and CEO.
Telcos, enterprises and cloud providers need to be prepared now — because cybercriminals are already getting ready.
'Harvest now, encrypt later'
Ian Swanson, Palo Alto Networks VP of AI security, agreed. "The uncomfortable question you should be asking is whether your data is safe from a computer that does not exist yet. With NIST recently finalizing post-quantum standards, the clock has officially started on the 'Harvest Now, Decrypt Later' threat, where attackers steal encrypted data today to unlock it the moment a quantum computer becomes capable."
This "Harvest Now, Decrypt Later" strategy means adversaries are already stealing encrypted data—everything from classified communications to financial records—banking on their ability to crack it once quantum computers arrive. Data encrypted today and stolen tomorrow could be readable in 2030, making even current sensitive information a future liability.
Both Russian and Chinese attackers will pick up the data collection pace this year, before US government agencies and enterprises implement post-quantum cryptography that's resistant to quantum attacks, Chuck Herrin, F5 field chief information security officer (CISO) and customer advocate, told Fierce Network.
Organizations need to implement "cryptographic inventory" of encrypted assets and keys, Swanson said. A cryptographic inventory is a comprehensive examination of all cryptographic assets within an organization, including keys, certificates, algorithms, libraries and protocols — essentially a detailed map of where and how encryption is being used across your entire digital infrastructure.
"If you wait until a quantum computer is live, you have already lost," Swanson said.
Big investment, bigger protection
The post-quantum cryptography market will grow from $1.9 billion last year to $12.6 billion in 2035 — a relatively modest investment to protect exponentially larger assets. A successful quantum attack on the global SWIFT financial network could freeze $5 trillion in daily transactions, Synergy Quantum said.
The window for action is narrowing. While Q-Day may be a decade away, the multi-year process of upgrading global telecommunications infrastructure means the time to act is now—not when quantum computers are already breaking encryption in real-time.
For those who remember Y2K, Q-Day carries a familiar urgency — a known deadline requiring massive infrastructure updates to prevent catastrophic failure. Y2K remediation cost an estimated $100 billion, but it worked because organizations didn't wait until midnight on December 31, 1999, to start preparing.
And if you need even more of a Y2K nostalgia fix, consider the Year 2038 problem. That's the year when older, 32-bit Unix systems break down due to their inability to measure time; computer systems that use time for critical computations are at risk of fatal errors if the Y2038 problem is not addressed.